Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 2.264905 2.402368 2.547712 2.713501 2.898200 3.098617 3.333858
2025-04-13 2.021138 2.202592 2.403609 2.644980 2.929922 3.259501 3.675511
2025-04-20 1.910574 2.123200 2.366964 2.671334 3.047517 3.506256 4.123210
2025-04-27 1.840168 2.077609 2.357593 2.718926 3.183742 3.778365 4.627685
2025-05-04 1.782210 2.039061 2.349246 2.761194 3.310383 4.044705 5.156317
2025-05-11 1.705377 1.970540 2.296558 2.739146 3.345945 4.186800 5.523400
2025-05-18 1.640586 1.912149 2.251359 2.721004 3.381589 4.328127 5.905784
2025-05-25 1.581563 1.857217 2.206313 2.698125 3.405994 4.452023 6.276064
2025-06-01 1.528114 1.806368 2.163100 2.673594 3.423979 4.565217 6.643937
2025-06-08 1.489915 1.773225 2.141064 2.676130 3.480406 4.742409 7.156304
2025-06-15 1.463951 1.754666 2.137139 2.703199 3.574760 4.990188 7.853290
2025-06-22 1.417396 1.706519 2.090127 2.664253 3.562282 5.054671 8.192748
2025-06-29 1.373277 1.660675 2.045169 2.627023 3.551604 5.124519 8.568783
2025-07-06 1.323366 1.605308 1.984734 2.563485 3.493685 5.103582 8.738104
2025-07-13 1.305018 1.592311 1.983250 2.588592 3.583067 5.362993 9.636992
2025-07-20 1.294028 1.588807 1.994756 2.633733 3.709258 5.709201 10.878420
2025-07-27 1.282128 1.583409 2.002995 2.673794 3.829662 6.062004 12.294249
2025-08-03 1.253617 1.553590 1.974168 2.652901 3.839336 6.185658 13.075141
2025-08-10 1.227724 1.526661 1.948544 2.635704 3.854113 6.322061 13.962449
2025-08-17 1.201992 1.499188 1.921083 2.614011 3.858684 6.436287 14.831900
2025-08-24 1.177140 1.472277 1.893521 2.590744 3.858418 6.539451 15.719770
2025-08-31 1.160177 1.456243 1.881765 2.593150 3.907261 6.765398 17.256178
2025-09-07 1.149895 1.449543 1.883851 2.618822 4.003334 7.122767 19.686561